The True State of Virginia's Economy

There’s a debate playing out in Virginia right now about the true state of our economy. If you believe Governor Glenn Youngkin, everything is fine: Virginia is outperforming national averages in the job market, our revenue collections are above projections, and the Commonwealth’s financial picture is solid. But if you believe the signs that economists, analysts, and even bipartisan legislators are pointing to, we’re in for a heap of trouble.

 

The truth is both perspectives can be true. And that’s the real challenge when you’re cruising at 70 miles an hour down the interstate, everything can look smooth until you spot a bright sign flashing: “Accident Ahead.” Most of us, faced with that warning, take our foot off the gas, check the GPS, and prepare for what’s coming. The question is whether we’ll do that as a Commonwealth or whether we’ll plow forward at full speed, insisting the road is clear until it’s too late.

 

Final Report | Emergency Committee on Impacts of Federal Workforce and Funding Reductions

 

Last week, the Emergency Committee on Impacts of Federal Workforce and Funding Reductions held its final meeting and issued a sobering report. After months of testimony, data collection, and economic analysis, the conclusion was clear: Virginia is on a collision course if Congress continues cutting federal spending at this pace.

 

Nearly a quarter of our Virginia’s economy is tied to federal spending, more than any other state. When Washington makes deep cuts, Virginia feels the pain first and worst. We’ve already lost more than 11,000 federal jobs, with another 10,000 at risk. These statistics represent families who’ve lost paychecks, small businesses who’ve lost customers, and local governments who’ve lost tax revenue for schools and public safety.

 

The threats go well beyond the workforce. The President signed H.R. 1, allowing federal premium tax credits to expire at the end of 2025, spiking health insurance costs for more than 200,000 Virginia families with many seeing premiums more than double. Replacing those credits would cost the state $250 million annually, money that could otherwise fund schools, infrastructure, or job creation.

 

Food assistance is another area where families will pay more for less. H.R.1 adds $90 million in costs to Virginia in 2027 and $270 million in 2028 just to keep SNAP running. At the same time, it layers on red tape and blocks benefit increases, even as grocery bills climb higher.

 

Hospitals are bracing for a $2.1 billion annual loss in federal funding once these cuts take hold. That is enough to push many community and rural hospitals already operating on razor-thin margins to close their doors. Losing a hospital doesn’t just mean losing access to doctors and nurses. It means longer drives in an emergency and reduced healthcare access for entire regions of the Commonwealth.

 

Education is under the knife too. The U.S. House Appropriations Committee has proposed the deepest cuts in decades, slashing overall federal support for K–12 schools by 27% and Title I by 34%. On top of that, they would claw back $2.6 billion that schools already planned to use. These cuts eliminate programs for English learners, adult education, migrant and homeless students, and teacher training.

 

And it’s not just abstract future obligations, but critical current projects. Portsmouth saw $24.2 million for dam repairs evaporate. Richmond lost $12 million for water treatment upgrades. Hampton lost $20 million for climate resilience. Norfolk lost nearly $40 million for an offshore wind logistics park. These weren’t “nice to have” projects. They were urgent, job-creating investments. And now they’re gone.

 

The Governor would have you believe our current surplus protects us. But that “cushion” is temporary and these costs are ongoing. You can’t build long-term stability on short-term dollars. That’s why the Committee called for transparency from the Youngkin Administration and real-time data so Virginians can see the risks clearly. We also recommended practical protections for workers blindsided by layoffs: the right to break leases they can’t afford, eviction prevention, extended unemployment benefits, and retraining programs. These are common-sense ways to soften the blow when federal cuts land hardest here at home.

 

As his term winds down, the Governor may prefer to look away. But Virginians don’t have that luxury. The warning signs are flashing. Our choice is simple: do we slow down, take stock, and adjust course or do we press the accelerator and hope the road really is as clear as it looks right now?

 

Virginia has always thrived when we planned ahead, diversified our economy, and invested in our people. That’s the road to long-term prosperity. Pretending there’s no accident ahead is not leadership. It’s denial. And Virginians deserve better than that.

VELA - A 90's Comeback?

Remember Friday nights at Blockbuster, keeping your Tamagotchi alive between classes, or rocking a pair of wide-leg jeans with Doc Martens? The ’90s are back on TikTok, in our closets, even in the soundtrack of our kids’ Spotify playlists. And maybe, it’s time for one more revival: the Virginia Education Loan Authority (VELA). Like the Beanie Babies in your attic, VELA was packed away in 1997 under Governor George Allen. But with Washington pulling back on student lending, Virginia may need to bring this retro policy back into circulation.

On August 14th, the State Council of Higher Education for Virginia (SCHEV) appeared before the House Emergency Committee on Impacts of Federal Workforce and Funding Reductions to lay out the hard truth. The federal government’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” (H.R. 1) is about to make paying for college a lot harder. Pell eligibility will shrink. Parent PLUS and Graduate PLUS loans, which are already lifelines for many working- and middle-class families, are being capped. And new “earnings outcome” rules could put pressure on Virginia colleges that serve a higher share of first-generation and lower-income students.

SCHEV’s analysts showed us the stark numbers. Virginia families already face billions of dollars in unmet need every year, even before these federal cuts. Without access to federal lending capacity, students will be forced to cobble together private loans with higher interest rates or, more likely, to walk away from higher education altogether. Add to that declining demographics, skepticism about the return on investment, and the loss of international students, and Virginia’s higher-ed system is staring at a perfect storm.

If this feels familiar, it should. The last time federal support was dialed back and college affordability became a crisis, Virginia responded by creating VELA. It was a homegrown solution that recognized education as an investment in our own future workforce and economy.

And this isn’t the first time the idea of reviving VELA has been floated. Back in 2016, I introduced legislation to reimagine VELA as a student loan refinancing authority. The proposal would have allowed Virginia to sell tax-free municipal bonds and let qualified borrowers refinance their student debt at lower rates. The goal was to give responsible borrowers a fair shot to get out from under crushing monthly payments, freeing up resources to buy homes, start families, and invest in our communities. At the time, SCHEV and our Treasurer’s office studied the model and found it feasible, though the bill never made it out of committee. Yet the blueprint remains on the shelf, ready to be dusted off.

Some may think this is too ambitious. However, we’ve already laid groundwork to protect borrowers. In 2020, I carried legislation establishing Virginia’s Student Borrower Bill of Rights, licensing student loan servicers, and creating the Qualified Education Loan Ombudsman housed at SCHEV. The Ombudsman serves as a hands-on liaison for borrowers, cuts through red tape with servicers, and produces public reports that keep us honest about what’s working and what isn’t. Those protections were upheld and implemented, and they remain among the strongest in the country.

The need for a state-based solution is even more urgent. If the federal government is edging out of the business of making student loans workable, maybe it’s time Virginia edges back in. We don’t need to recreate VELA exactly as it was in 1990’s. But we can revive the spirit of a state-level partner that could once again help Virginians bridge the affordability gap, this time with the added tools of refinancing, smarter lending practices, and modern oversight.

While it may or may not be the right solution today, it’s certainly an idea whose time could be coming back. And before any decisions are made, it’s worth a broader conversation. I welcome feedback on whether reviving VELA or something like it could be part of how we keep higher education affordable for the next generation. An updated VELA with strong consumer protection and measured financial tools can keep more talent here, grow our economy, and prove again that when the federal pendulum swings, Virginia doesn’t have to swing with it.

Smart Growth - Affordable Housing

My oldest child graduated from college this year. My youngest finished his freshman year at Virginia Tech. That makes Rachel and I almost empty nesters as they still come home for summers. It has caused us to start thinking about where we want to live next. The house we raised our kids in was perfectly suited for that. We love our school pyramid, the quiet cul-de-sac, and that we back up to undeveloped parkland with a stream, trees, and trails.

Falls Church City looks like a great candidate for our next home. In addition to top-tier schools, it has vibrant neighborhoods, and a great combination of density along major corridors that step down nicely into residential neighborhoods. A walkable community with all the amenities of a big city, and a small-town feel.

I want to applaud the City Council, Planning Commission and City staff for a job well done! What higher compliment can I pay than saying, I want to join you?

What’s stopping us? What’s stopping anyone. For many people it’s cost. Fairfax County has the same problems. I’m constantly amazed at what people are willing to pay to move into neighborhoods in the 13^th District, or to pay for a house just to tear it down.

There must be things we can do to make housing more affordable and to keep it withing reach of ordinary people.

That’s why I’ve supported an “all of the above” approach to reigning in the skyrocketing cost of housing. In some cases that means incentivizing the creation of more new affordable housing options or it means working to preserve affordable housing where it already exists. It also means looking at our processes to see where redundancy and inefficiency are adding unnecessary costs and barriers to bringing new housing supply to the market.

It's easy to say we have a problem, and even to point out what some of the problems are. Over the years, I’ve also been willing to propose solutions. I’ve carried and supported legislation tailored to help Falls Church be a leader in smart growth. We’ve expanded the use of accessory dwelling units, incentivized affordable housing in mixed-use developments, and supported transition zone reform to allow gentle infill and more housing choices.

This year I sponsored a bill to bring more predictability and fairness to local land use decisions. My bill set reasonable, enforceable deadlines for local governments to act on zoning and site plan applications. It doesn’t take away local authority but rather ensures that decisions happen on a predictable timeline, so that we’re not driving up the cost of housing through bureaucratic delay.

After a project has already been approved for development, community input has been received, and the project has cleared the policy hurdles, my bill requires the local authorities to streamline the process for approving the final site plans by shortening the turnaround time and reducing the need for multiple resubmissions.

I also voted for a new law that moves final site plan approval into the hands of professional planning staff. Site plans should be judged by objective standards and not subject to shifting politics or last-minute opposition. Public engagement is critical in this process and there are plenty of opportunities for it during planning, rezoning, and design. However, the site plan stage is where we should be moving things forward, once building officials deem that the application is complete and follows regulations.

Fairfax County has already begun adjusting its internal processes to take full advantage of the new law. County leaders have recognized that delays cost money and those costs get passed on to renters, first-time homebuyers, and families already stretched thin.

Fairfax’s planning staff now work on clear, accelerated review timelines, with performance metrics and coordinated feedback. They’ve incorporated meaningful community input where it matters most while ensuring that once the rules are set, projects that follow them get a fair and timely review.

As I said at the outset, I think the Falls Church City Council and Planning Commission have done an amazing job reshaping The Little City. So much so that I expect to become a resident myself in the not-too-distant future. Frankly, this legislation probably won’t have that big an impact here in Falls Church because the city already does things very well, and infill projects approved at any speed probably can’t provide enough supply to meaningfully change the forces of supply and demand driving prices higher.

That’s led some to wonder why the City should be subject to these new requirements at all. Legislation that makes the City move a little faster, and gives housing providers a little more certainty, though, won’t break the system. I believe it will make a great process even better.

New Virginia Laws

With Democrats controlling both the House of Delegates and the State Senate, and a Republican Governor, you’d be forgiven if you expected this year’s General Assembly session to be gridlocked. After all, here in Falls Church we live in the shadow of the Nation’s Capital and watching nothing happen in Congress is our unofficial spectator sport. 

While the partisan split did prevent us from making major progress on preventing gun violence, shoring up protections for reproductive freedom, and continuing to move Virginia up the chart of easy-to-vote states (we’re currently stuck at 11, though up from 49th), we did get a lot done in sharp contrast with our federal counterparts. 

Personally, this year’s legislative session was by far my most productive. At the end of our 46-day short session, the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) ranked me the most effective legislator in the General Assembly — with 14 of the 16 bills I introduced successfully passing both chambers. 

In 2024, I proudly held the record for the most vetoes by an individual Delegate. This year, only two of those bills were vetoed, with 12 becoming law on July 1. 

That change in outcome reflected a shift in approach. During the 2024 Session, I focused on drawing a contrast between the Governor’s vision for Virginia and the vision of a freer, fairer, more vibrant Commonwealth that lifts all families and unleashes our full potential. Having made that point, I decided to focus on bills that solve problems for constituents or at least move the ball forward on issues where everyone agreed something needed to be done, even if we disagreed on the details. 

Affordable Housing & Real Estate 

As a real estate attorney and Chairman of the Housing and Consumer Protection Subcommittee, I leaned into the issue of housing affordability — both by empowering localities to require more of it, and by helping them act more efficiently to reduce the cost of increasing supply. 

At the request of the City of Falls Church, beginning July 1, the Little City will have the same authority as other Northern Virginia jurisdictions to establish and enforce an affordable dwelling unit (ADU) program. Another new law imposes tighter timelines on local planning commissions and staff to review and approve plats and plans for new projects. 

As the owner of a real estate title company, I work with a lot of local Realtors — one of whom reached out to me about an annoying practice by Homeowners and Condo Associations. They required the name of the buyer before issuing resale certificates, forcing agents to either guess or wait until a property was under contract to get the ball rolling. 

Beginning July 1, they’ll no longer be allowed to require a buyer’s name before initiating resale inspections or issuing resale certificates, giving buyers and sellers more time to know what, if anything, must be done to comply with HOA rules before closing. 

Consumer Protection 

Straddling the consumer protection and real estate categories is a new law establishing a work group to tackle the rising issue of deed fraud — a new variety of identity theft where scammers impersonate the owners of vacant property and try to trick real estate professionals and court clerks into helping them sell property they don’t own. Bringing together those in a position to detect and prevent this type of fraud should help establish minimum standards and best practices, sending the message that Virginia is not an easy target. 

I also passed a bill that will help tenants renting property better understand the most important terms of their lease. Beginning July 1, the first page of every lease must itemize the fees landlords may charge, either upfront or monthly. 

Also prompted by a constituent request: Virginia’s current anti-SLAPP laws will now be expanded to include immunity for statements made in connection with Title IX complaints. That means people who participate in Title IX proceedings will be protected from defamation lawsuits which is a crucial safeguard for survivors, students, and others engaging in good faith in these important processes. 

Starting July 1, ear piercing will be safer and better regulated. When I learned there were gaps in how Virginia oversaw these services, I worked with the Department of Professional and Occupational Regulation (DPOR) to give them authority to establish rules and safety standards for businesses specializing in ear piercing, ensuring public safety and consistency for these increasingly common services. 

Campaign Finance Reform 

And finally, after many years, we achieved a big victory in campaign finance. Campaign funds can no longer be used for personal expenses. This may seem small, but Virginia was one of the last states to make this a law — and it matters. 

Jay Jones for Virginia AG

Just days after Donald Trump took office, Trump and unelected billionaire Elon Musk started slashing federal jobs without rhyme or reason. This left and, in many cases, continues to leave our neighbors in Falls Church and across Virginia in limbo about their jobs and their future.

 

Democratic-Led States Step Up

In response, attorneys generals from 20 states filed a lawsuit against the Trump Administration’s illegal mass firings of federal workers. In the states where attorneys general acted, workers have gotten some protections. But in Virginia, Attorney General Jayson Miyares failed to act, leaving Virginia workers out to dry and showing Virginians he is more concerned with pleasing Donald Trump than fighting for his own constituents.

The Trump Administration has moved swiftly to implement a sweeping agenda through executive orders and agency directives. His team has wasted no time raising costs through tariffs, targeting reproductive freedom, voting access, federal workforce rules, immigration protections, and environmental safeguards. Many of these moves are deeply controversial. Several may be unlawful. But what matters now is who is willing and ready to fight back.

Democratic-led states stepped up. Blue state attorneys general have sued to stop Trump’s mass deportation directive, challenged his rollback of offshore wind energy development, and filed briefs defending access to abortion medication and protections for LGBTQ+ workers.

Virginia has been on the sidelines and Miyares’s inaction is failing Virginians.

Why Virginia's AG Race Matters

 

If the first 100 days of Trump’s second term have taught us anything, it’s that the pace of legal attacks on fundamental rights is only accelerating. Every day, it becomes more urgent that we have an Attorney General in Virginia who’s ready to fight not just philosophically, but functionally.

This job requires real experience managing complex litigation, coordinating with other states, and standing up in federal court. We need an AG who knows how to block an unconstitutional executive order before it takes effect. Who can organize a multistate legal strategy to protect clean energy investments. Who will take swift action when healthcare, reproductive freedom, LGBTQ+ rights, or voting access are threatened.

That’s why I’m proud to support Jay Jones in the Democratic primary for Attorney General. Jay has the background, the energy, and the integrity to meet this moment head-on. As a former Assistant Attorney General, former Delegate, a seasoned attorney, and the son of a civil rights trailblazer, Jay understands both the courtroom and the communities he serves. He knows what it means to fight injustice. And he won’t hesitate to join his fellow Democratic AGs in standing up to federal overreach and fighting for Virginians’ rights.

 

Let’s choose an Attorney General who will fight like our future depends on it. The courts are one of the last places where truth still matters, where facts still hold sway, and where power can be held accountable. But only if we show up.

One Bill's Life - A True Origin Story

Most of what I know about legislating I learned from watching School House Rock’s “I’m Just a Bill” song, where I met an anthropomorphic “Bill” who was hoping to become a law someday. He sang the process to the young boy who found him sitting alone on the steps of the Capitol on Capitol Hill.  

One of the reasons I’ve always loved state level politics and the Virginia General Assembly so much is that, unlike Congress, things still follow a pretty regular and predictable order in Richmond.

In 2025, 13 of my bills grew up to become laws, and they followed the School House Rock process almost exactly, with a few twists and turns thrown in. 

 

One Bill's Life - A True Origin Story

Last September, I met with a constituent who was being sued by the person who had sexually harassed her after she filed a complaint under Title IX and testified during the ensuing investigation. The law professor who was the subject of the complaint was ultimately dismissed from the university for reasons unrelated to this complaint.

He has since filed a defamation lawsuit against her using statements made during the investigation, seeking over $100 million in damages. She believes that the suit is retaliatory and unfounded, designed to inflict extreme economic hardship rather than to win a judgement.

 

Why Virginia is Different

In many states, there are ways to dispose of frivolous lawsuits relatively quickly, and to recover attorney’s fees and have sanctions imposed if the court agrees that the suit was brought for improper purposes.

Virginia has what’s called an Anti-SLAPP statute, (Strategic Lawsuits Against Public Policy) but its application is extremely narrow and hard to invoke, making Virginia a “law tourism” destination for people looking to bring these kinds of defamation suits.  

 

Initially, we expanded the scope of the existing law to include immunity for statements made in connection with all official proceedings and added a mandatory award of attorney’s fees and sanctions to deter people from bringing these suits in the first place.

 

Session Semantics

The bill’s first stop after being drafted was in the Civil Law Subcommittee, which I happen to chair. My constituent drove down from Falls Church that morning and had about 10 minutes to testify and explain her particular situation.  

While my fellow legislators were sympathetic, they were concerned with the mandatory award of sanctions, so we made that optional again, advancing the bill with only one NO vote. At full committee, an attorney who frequently worked for those bringing defamation suits surprised us with testimony that he thought the bill, even as trimmed by the subcommittee, went too far. We passed it over his objections on a narrow vote, but when the bill came to the House Floor, where we couldn’t afford to lose any votes, we took out the mandatory attorney’s fees as well.  

So far, things were going just like the cartoon - we went to committee where it was argued and amended, then to the Floor, where it was amended some more, and voted on and passed. The next stop was the State Senate, to start all over again.

In the Senate, I didn’t have the advantage of chairing the committee where the bill would be heard, so I spent a lot of one-on-one time talking with my Senate colleagues. My constituent returned to Richmond to have individual meetings with Senators and their staff, once again sharing her traumatic story with the hope that she could tip the scales.

Some wordsmithing later, the Senate Courts Committee and ultimately the Senate passed the amended version, 39-1. The House accepted the changes and the bill headed to the Governor.  

 

The Bill Passes With a Twist

One Virginia specific twist. While the President can only sign or veto a bill, the Governor can recommend amendments, which he did. His amendment narrowed the scope even further so that it only applies to Title IX processes.  

While it’s not all we were hoping for, our bill makes it clear that someone who is suffering sexual harassment in an academic setting can file a Title IX complaint and feel safe to testify about their experience without living in fear of a 9 figure lawsuit being filed for the purpose of bringing about financial ruin and years of emotional distress. This bill will become law on July 1, 2025.

The Compromise State Budget

The General Assembly wrapped up its regular session last month, sending 917 bills to the Governor for action. In Virginia, the Governor has until the end of March to sign, veto, or recommend amendments to the legislation we pass.

That’s out of more than 2,000 bills that were introduced. 

I’m proud to report that the 2025 session was a highly successful one for me. According to a recent Virginia Public Access Project analysis, I was ranked the most effective legislator in the state, with 14 of the 16 bills I introduced passing both chambers.

One of the most critical responsibilities of the General Assembly during our short session is adjusting Virginia’s two-year budget. This year, we’re looking at a significant surplus, though the ongoing dismantling of the federal government and workforce could have major implications for those numbers.

I’ve been tapped by the Speaker of the House to serve on a bi-partisan Emergency Committee to work to ascertain exactly what the impact will be on Virginia’s budget and help make policy recommendations to address the potential loss of revenue, providing for the needs of newly unemployed federal workers, and long term strategies to allow our economy to adapt the reality of an eviscerated Federal Government. 

With that in mind, here’s a look at what we accomplished in January and February.

Putting money back in the pockets of hard-working Virginians

The House-Senate compromise budget includes over $1 billion in tax cuts for Virginians, including tax rebates of $200 per individual and $400 per couple by October 2025, plus a permanent increase in the standard deduction to help lower tax burdens.

We’re expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), providing more relief to lower-income households. 

Affordable Housing

I hear about this issue a lot – from constituents and in my day job as a real estate title attorney. To help address it, this budget has significant investments to help Virginians achieve homeownership, address high rental costs for low-income Virginians, and increase the state’s supply of affordable housing.

Specifically, there is a pilot program that will provide direct rental assistance to families in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, so that the cost of housing does not exceed 30% of their income. A new grant program for first-time homebuyers to receive a grant of up to $10,000 was also established to help offset the cost of homeownership.

Public Education

This budget includes a historic $782 million increase in state funding for our K-12 public education system. Along with the already promised 3% raise, teachers and support staff will receive a $1,000 bonus.

We also set aside $150 million to improve school facilities, ensuring safe and modern classrooms for Virginia’s students. And we’re investing in early childhood education by adding 4,500 new early childhood education slots while keeping childcare costs affordable for working families.

Healthcare & Mental Health Services

Better and sustainable healthcare for all Virginians is a top priority. As a result, the budget includes an $869 million investment in health and human services, ensuring more funding for Medicaid, maternal health, and mental health services.

Of this, $41.2 million is earmarked for behavioral health, including crisis services, mental health workforce support, and expanded psychiatric resources. There is also $32.3 million to address critical improvements in state mental health facilities.

In addition, there is $8.7 million to hire additional support coordinators at Community Service Boards to ensure individuals receiving a DD waiver get timely access to services and to help with the increased caseload due to the significant addition of DD waiver slots this biennium.

We added an additional $1 million to expand pilot programs to divert and discharge individuals with dementia from state hospitals to community placements. Fairfax County will be able to expand their pilot program that reduces the risk of social isolation among older Virginians, with the goal of expanding the program statewide.

Environment & Infrastructure

Protecting our environment and shoring up our infrastructure projects are critical to Virginia’s continued economic success. As such, we’re maintaining our commitment to the Chesapeake Bay Cleanup by fully funding agricultural best management practices for the biennium. 

The Stormwater Local Assistance Fund will get $40 million to cover projected costs and the we will fully fund the state share of costs for wastewater treatment plant improvements. We’re also adding $25 million for drinking water grants to localities to upgrade or replace existing drinking water infrastructure.

This budget includes restores $3.3 million for operating support for WMATA.

Safer Communities

There is an additional $5.9 million to support grants for local community violence intervention programs, plus an additional $3.5 million for sexual assault and domestic violence victim agencies and victim witness programs.