The True State of Virginia's Economy

There’s a debate playing out in Virginia right now about the true state of our economy. If you believe Governor Glenn Youngkin, everything is fine: Virginia is outperforming national averages in the job market, our revenue collections are above projections, and the Commonwealth’s financial picture is solid. But if you believe the signs that economists, analysts, and even bipartisan legislators are pointing to, we’re in for a heap of trouble.

 

The truth is both perspectives can be true. And that’s the real challenge when you’re cruising at 70 miles an hour down the interstate, everything can look smooth until you spot a bright sign flashing: “Accident Ahead.” Most of us, faced with that warning, take our foot off the gas, check the GPS, and prepare for what’s coming. The question is whether we’ll do that as a Commonwealth or whether we’ll plow forward at full speed, insisting the road is clear until it’s too late.

 

Final Report | Emergency Committee on Impacts of Federal Workforce and Funding Reductions

 

Last week, the Emergency Committee on Impacts of Federal Workforce and Funding Reductions held its final meeting and issued a sobering report. After months of testimony, data collection, and economic analysis, the conclusion was clear: Virginia is on a collision course if Congress continues cutting federal spending at this pace.

 

Nearly a quarter of our Virginia’s economy is tied to federal spending, more than any other state. When Washington makes deep cuts, Virginia feels the pain first and worst. We’ve already lost more than 11,000 federal jobs, with another 10,000 at risk. These statistics represent families who’ve lost paychecks, small businesses who’ve lost customers, and local governments who’ve lost tax revenue for schools and public safety.

 

The threats go well beyond the workforce. The President signed H.R. 1, allowing federal premium tax credits to expire at the end of 2025, spiking health insurance costs for more than 200,000 Virginia families with many seeing premiums more than double. Replacing those credits would cost the state $250 million annually, money that could otherwise fund schools, infrastructure, or job creation.

 

Food assistance is another area where families will pay more for less. H.R.1 adds $90 million in costs to Virginia in 2027 and $270 million in 2028 just to keep SNAP running. At the same time, it layers on red tape and blocks benefit increases, even as grocery bills climb higher.

 

Hospitals are bracing for a $2.1 billion annual loss in federal funding once these cuts take hold. That is enough to push many community and rural hospitals already operating on razor-thin margins to close their doors. Losing a hospital doesn’t just mean losing access to doctors and nurses. It means longer drives in an emergency and reduced healthcare access for entire regions of the Commonwealth.

 

Education is under the knife too. The U.S. House Appropriations Committee has proposed the deepest cuts in decades, slashing overall federal support for K–12 schools by 27% and Title I by 34%. On top of that, they would claw back $2.6 billion that schools already planned to use. These cuts eliminate programs for English learners, adult education, migrant and homeless students, and teacher training.

 

And it’s not just abstract future obligations, but critical current projects. Portsmouth saw $24.2 million for dam repairs evaporate. Richmond lost $12 million for water treatment upgrades. Hampton lost $20 million for climate resilience. Norfolk lost nearly $40 million for an offshore wind logistics park. These weren’t “nice to have” projects. They were urgent, job-creating investments. And now they’re gone.

 

The Governor would have you believe our current surplus protects us. But that “cushion” is temporary and these costs are ongoing. You can’t build long-term stability on short-term dollars. That’s why the Committee called for transparency from the Youngkin Administration and real-time data so Virginians can see the risks clearly. We also recommended practical protections for workers blindsided by layoffs: the right to break leases they can’t afford, eviction prevention, extended unemployment benefits, and retraining programs. These are common-sense ways to soften the blow when federal cuts land hardest here at home.

 

As his term winds down, the Governor may prefer to look away. But Virginians don’t have that luxury. The warning signs are flashing. Our choice is simple: do we slow down, take stock, and adjust course or do we press the accelerator and hope the road really is as clear as it looks right now?

 

Virginia has always thrived when we planned ahead, diversified our economy, and invested in our people. That’s the road to long-term prosperity. Pretending there’s no accident ahead is not leadership. It’s denial. And Virginians deserve better than that.

The Compromise State Budget

The General Assembly wrapped up its regular session last month, sending 917 bills to the Governor for action. In Virginia, the Governor has until the end of March to sign, veto, or recommend amendments to the legislation we pass.

That’s out of more than 2,000 bills that were introduced. 

I’m proud to report that the 2025 session was a highly successful one for me. According to a recent Virginia Public Access Project analysis, I was ranked the most effective legislator in the state, with 14 of the 16 bills I introduced passing both chambers.

One of the most critical responsibilities of the General Assembly during our short session is adjusting Virginia’s two-year budget. This year, we’re looking at a significant surplus, though the ongoing dismantling of the federal government and workforce could have major implications for those numbers.

I’ve been tapped by the Speaker of the House to serve on a bi-partisan Emergency Committee to work to ascertain exactly what the impact will be on Virginia’s budget and help make policy recommendations to address the potential loss of revenue, providing for the needs of newly unemployed federal workers, and long term strategies to allow our economy to adapt the reality of an eviscerated Federal Government. 

With that in mind, here’s a look at what we accomplished in January and February.

Putting money back in the pockets of hard-working Virginians

The House-Senate compromise budget includes over $1 billion in tax cuts for Virginians, including tax rebates of $200 per individual and $400 per couple by October 2025, plus a permanent increase in the standard deduction to help lower tax burdens.

We’re expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), providing more relief to lower-income households. 

Affordable Housing

I hear about this issue a lot – from constituents and in my day job as a real estate title attorney. To help address it, this budget has significant investments to help Virginians achieve homeownership, address high rental costs for low-income Virginians, and increase the state’s supply of affordable housing.

Specifically, there is a pilot program that will provide direct rental assistance to families in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, so that the cost of housing does not exceed 30% of their income. A new grant program for first-time homebuyers to receive a grant of up to $10,000 was also established to help offset the cost of homeownership.

Public Education

This budget includes a historic $782 million increase in state funding for our K-12 public education system. Along with the already promised 3% raise, teachers and support staff will receive a $1,000 bonus.

We also set aside $150 million to improve school facilities, ensuring safe and modern classrooms for Virginia’s students. And we’re investing in early childhood education by adding 4,500 new early childhood education slots while keeping childcare costs affordable for working families.

Healthcare & Mental Health Services

Better and sustainable healthcare for all Virginians is a top priority. As a result, the budget includes an $869 million investment in health and human services, ensuring more funding for Medicaid, maternal health, and mental health services.

Of this, $41.2 million is earmarked for behavioral health, including crisis services, mental health workforce support, and expanded psychiatric resources. There is also $32.3 million to address critical improvements in state mental health facilities.

In addition, there is $8.7 million to hire additional support coordinators at Community Service Boards to ensure individuals receiving a DD waiver get timely access to services and to help with the increased caseload due to the significant addition of DD waiver slots this biennium.

We added an additional $1 million to expand pilot programs to divert and discharge individuals with dementia from state hospitals to community placements. Fairfax County will be able to expand their pilot program that reduces the risk of social isolation among older Virginians, with the goal of expanding the program statewide.

Environment & Infrastructure

Protecting our environment and shoring up our infrastructure projects are critical to Virginia’s continued economic success. As such, we’re maintaining our commitment to the Chesapeake Bay Cleanup by fully funding agricultural best management practices for the biennium. 

The Stormwater Local Assistance Fund will get $40 million to cover projected costs and the we will fully fund the state share of costs for wastewater treatment plant improvements. We’re also adding $25 million for drinking water grants to localities to upgrade or replace existing drinking water infrastructure.

This budget includes restores $3.3 million for operating support for WMATA.

Safer Communities

There is an additional $5.9 million to support grants for local community violence intervention programs, plus an additional $3.5 million for sexual assault and domestic violence victim agencies and victim witness programs.

Boards, Councils and Commissions Season

September is the beginning of several different seasons. It’s football season (as you may remember from my last column, we dropped my son off at Virginia Tech last month, so Go Hokies!), its back-to-school season, in Virginia it’s election season (early Voting starts this week) and in Richmond, it’s “Boards, Councils and Commissions Season” – at least that’s what I’m calling it.  

Virginia has a very short legislative session - 60 days in the even years and an even more concise 45 days in the odd years. As we get ready for the 2025 Session, the pace of commission work picks up in September, October and November.  

I currently serve as Chairman of the Virginia Code Commission as well as a member of the Joint Legislative Audit Review Commission (JLARC), the Virginia Military Advisory Council, the Secure and Resilient Commonwealth Panel (SRCP), the Judicial Conference of Virginia District Courts, the House Select Committee on Maintaining Campus Safety and First Amendment Expression, and the Virginia Tribes Commission. I also Chair the Virginia Freedom of Information Advisory Council (FOIA Council). 

In my time on the FOIA Council, I have come to appreciate the issues surrounding FOIA requests in Virginia. Now that I am the Chair, I am eager to take a closer look at this process.  

What is FOIA? 

The Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) was enacted in 1966, empowering the public to request access to federal agency records, ensuring that citizens, journalists, and watchdog organizations can monitor government activities. FOIA plays a crucial role in upholding democratic values by shedding light on the workings of public institutions, preventing corruption, and fostering informed public debate. By making government actions visible, FOIA strengthens trust between citizens and their representatives, reinforcing the principle that government should serve the people with integrity and openness. 

Virginia FOIA Council 

The Virginia Freedom of Information Advisory Council brings this transparency to the state-level. The Council helps resolve FOIA-related disputes by answering questions from private citizens, public officials, and the media about access to public records and meetings. Under Virginia law, the presumption is that all public officials’ documents and all meetings of state and local public bodies are open to the public. However, there are exceptions, which often lead to good faith disagreements between interested parties. 

The Council has the authority to issue advisory opinions with the intent to resolve disputes by clarifying what the law requires and to guide future practices. That said, it has no authority to mediate disagreements but can serve as a resource, conduct training seminars, and publish educational materials.  

As Chair, I’ve been working on how best to increase transparency in the FOIA process. During our July meeting, I asked Council members to share their concerns and what improvements could be made.  

If increasing public access and government transparency is the goal, how do we best accomplish that while balancing the need to keep some documents confidential? Well, that’s the crux of the issue right there.  

Ripped From the Headlines 

As a case study, let’s look at the recently released policy body camera footage involving Tyreek Hill in Florida. This footage has been in the news and on social media in spite of the fact that the investigation is ongoing and the officers involved are on administrative leave.  

In Virginia, body camera footage may be withheld from the public and the press. It would only have to be released once the case was no longer ongoing pursuant to current law. 

"Ongoing" refers to a case in which the prosecution has not been finally adjudicated, the investigation continues to gather evidence for a possible future criminal case, and such case would be jeopardized by the premature release of evidence.  

Once a case is closed, the list of those individuals who would have a “right” to the footage is short – the victim, the victim’s immediate family if the victim is deceased, the victim’s parent or guardian if they are a minor, and an attorney representing a petitioner in certain legal cases.  

Even under these provisions there are additional procedures such as notification of the victim and allowing the victim the opportunity to file an injunction against release. Other exemptions may still be used to redact records due to the conflict resolution clause in this section of the Code of Virginia. 

Nowhere does it state that the public or the press has a right to access this material whether the case is ongoing or closed.  

While it pains me to say that Florida is doing something better than the Commonwealth, we should be able to at least be able to do as well as them when it comes to transparency.

Redistristing, Campaign Finance, & Public Input

When I was sworn into the Virginia House of Delegates in January of 2014, I was one of 33 House Democrats – a super-minority incapable of even sustaining a veto by the recently elected Democratic Governor, Terry McAuliffe. 

Although I was a real estate attorney, small business owner, with a long background in local government, I was assigned to only two committees that produced the fewest bills and generated the least work in the General Assembly. When session ended, I was free to resume my full-time work schedule, with little risk of being asked to serve in any capacity that might cause me to need to drive back to Richmond during the “off-season” between sessions. 

I knew that these off-session commission, boards, work groups and task-forces were where most of the real work of legislating happened, but also knew for a freshman Democrat from liberal Northern Virginia, my contributions and point of view weren’t really sought after.

What a difference a couple of elections can make. Since taking over the Majority in 2020, I’ve been appointed to four committees, one of which I chair, and five subcommittees, one of which I chair. In addition, I serve on the Housing Commission, the FOIA Council (Vice Chair), the Code Commission (Vice Chair), the Legislative Support Commission, the Joint Reapportionment Committee, the Board of Veterans Services, the Virginia Redistricting Commission, and the Joint Subcommittee to Study Campaign Finance Reform (Chair).

Since the public health State of Emergency ended and in-person meetings resumed, I’ve gotten to know well every pothole between Falls Church and Richmond.

With all the important work happening between sessions, I want to focus on two of these commissions that are doing work which you can greatly influence through public participation and activism in the next few weeks.

This week, the Virginia Redistricting Commission provided criteria to two sets of professional map drawers with instructions for them to create maps for the House and Senate districts for the entire Commonwealth by next week. Over the next month, the Commission will be taking a deep dive into these maps, reviewing the lines, listening to public comments, and making adjustments as needed.

In addition to public comment at the end of each regular Commission meeting, there will be two virtual public hearings each day from October 4^th through October 7^th with each hearing focusing on a specific region in the Commonwealth. The Commission will take a final vote on the House and Senate maps on October 11^th.

After this, we will start to review the Virginia congressional map over a series of meetings with a virtual public hearing on October 22^nd and a final Commission vote on October 25^th. Assuming that the Commission passes these maps, then they will go to the General Assembly for an up or down vote.

Public input is a major component of this process, which can be shared via written comments or during public hearings. Bottom line - we need to hear from you.

Are you concerned about the criteria the master mapmakers are using to draw the maps? Do you live in a split precinct or a community divided among a few representatives? Are you concerned about incumbents being drawn into the same district? Is there a specific community of interest that you think should be kept together?

Specific to Falls Church, do you think the City should be a community of interest with Arlington or with Fairfax County?

The Redistricting Commission website, VirginiaRedistricting.org, has all you need to participate – sign up to speak at a public hearing, submit written comments, or make specific comments directly on the preliminary maps. You can even submit your own maps to be reviewed!

Another opportunity you have to share feedback is with the Joint Subcommittee to Study Campaign Finance Reform. The Subcommittee’s second meeting is September 17^th, which will be livestreamed via the Virginia General Assembly website.

Tasked with examining the costs of campaigning in the Commonwealth, the effectiveness of our current disclosure laws and their enforcement, and options available to regulate campaign finances, the Subcommittee's primary submit a report with recommendations by November 1, 2021.

As chair of this Subcommittee, I’d love to hear from the public about what needs to be done in Virginia to promote the integrity of and confidence in our campaign finance system. You can sign up to speak or submit comments through hodspeak.house.virginia.gov.

The Deep State is real

The Deep State is real.

Well, sort of.

To the extent you’ve been told there is a vast network of semi-anonymous appointed business leaders and career government bureaucrats who work together with a chosen few elected officials to make the really important policy decisions while almost no one is looking . . . well, here in Virginia, we call those Boards, Authorities, Councils, Commissions, Studies, and sometimes Study Commissions, or Select Committees, or some combination of all of the above.

Ok, it’s really not as nefarious as I make it sound. The meetings are all open to the public and subject to Virginia’s Freedom of Information laws and they provide a great forum of public and stakeholder input that we rarely have time for during our regular legislative sessions in January and February.

In fact, people ask me all the time how the General Assembly can really make the important policy decisions it needs to make during our very short legislative sessions – 60 day “long” sessions and 45 day “short” ones.

The short answer: We don’t.

The long answer: A lot of the heavy lifting is done in the off season with the help of these groups made up of subject matter experts, interested and affected parties, legislators, lawyers and advocates. Although these groups don’t have the power to change the law without General Assembly action, when their legislative recommendations are introduced, they carry a lot of weight and given the volume of work we have to do - rarely second guessed too much.

That’s why many times when people get down to Richmond to advocate during session, it feels like they are already too late. For the six years I served in the minority party in the House of Delegates, I often felt the same way. Legislators would appear before committees and their entire bill presentation would be “this is a recommendation of the Boyd-Graves Conference” and that would be that.

We made a lot of important progress during this year’s General Assembly session, but there is much more work to do. For the first time in 24 years, we’ve had both chambers and the Governor’s mansion under Democratic Control. Some of the bills dealing with stickier issues this year were referred to commissions for further study and refinement.

In the past, when a progressive policy agenda item was referred to a commission or “carried over” that was a relatively gentle way of killing the bill.

As our new Democratic majorities settle in for the long haul, though, the Speaker of the House has the opportunity to appoint new members to dozens of commissions, boards and councils. This creates opportunities for members who may have been sidelined previously to participate in the legislative process in new and more meaningful ways.

I was thrilled last week to learn that I’d been appointed by the Speaker to serve on the Board of Veterans Affairs, the Freedom of Information Advisory Council (FOIA), the Code Commission, and the Housing Commission.

The Board of Veterans Affairs works on policies related to veterans’ welfare and services available in the Commonwealth. It meets periodically throughout the year and works closely with the Veterans Affairs Caucus, of which I am also a member.

Transparency is the main purview of the FOIA Council. With some exceptions, the presumption is that documents from public officials and meetings of state and local public entities should be made available for review. It’s the exceptions that often cause the most issues. This is when the FOIA Council can step in to resolve disputes through advisory opinions, offering guidelines for interpreting Virginia’s Freedom of Information Act.

Established as a permanent commission 1946, the Code Commission is one of the oldest commissions around. It’s tasked with supervising the codification of statutes after each legislative session, revising Code titles, identifying obsolete sections, and reconciling the administrative regulations of state agencies into the Virginia Administrative Code. The Commission meets once a month.

Meanwhile, the Virginia Housing Commission is tasked with ensuring the availability of affordable housing in Virginia. Through permanent work groups, the Commission makes recommendations and oversees studies related to housing, real property, and community development. The full Commission meets three times per year and the work groups meeting more often as needed.

The legislative session we just finished was historic by any measure, and there is even more to come. I’m excited to be a part of the conversation.